Tesla Earnings Candle

 

Here’s a comprehensive look at Tesla’s Q2 2025 earnings, what to expect, and how the market is reacting:

📅 Q2 2025 Date & Context

Tesla is set to release its Q2 2025 financial results after market close on Wednesday, July 23, 2025, followed by an earnings call at **5:30 p.m. ET (4:30 CT)**  .

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🚗 Production & Deliveries

Tesla produced 410,244 vehicles and delivered 384,122 vehicles, reflecting a 13.5% drop year-over-year  .

Energy products deployment stood at 9.6 GWh, showing stability from the previous year  .

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📉 Revenue & Earnings Forecasts

Analysts are bracing for broad declines compared to Q2 2024:

Revenue: Projected between $22.4B–$22.9B, down ~12%, with consensus around $22.7B  .

Adjusted EPS: Expected around $0.39–$0.44, compared to $0.52 in Q2 2024  .

Margins: Automotive gross margin likely dropped to ~16.5%, down from 18.3% a year ago  .

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🔍 What to Watch During the Call

1. Robotaxi & FSD updates – Investors want clarity on deployment timelines and performance  .

2. Affordable Model and next-gen platform – Any progress on Tesla’s lower-cost models or next-generation architecture  .

3. Impact of Elon Musk’s political activities – Concerns remain over brand sentiment in Europe and the US  .

4. Factory and Optimus (robot) – Investors will ask for details on internal robotics like Optimus  .

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📈 Market & Analyst Tone

Stock movement: Implied volatility suggests a ~7% swing post-earnings, about $22 up/down from a $332 price  .

Analyst sentiment:

Morgan Stanley still ranks Tesla a “top pick”, $410 price target, despite political risks  .

Bearish voices: UBS and JPMorgan see Tesla as overvalued, with JPMorgan setting a $115 target  .

Ratings mixed: 9 “Buy,” 5 “Hold,” 4 “Sell”; average target ≈ $310  .

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⚠️ Key Risks & Challenges

Falling deliveries: Q2 drop marks Tesla's steepest on record  .

Weakening margins: Driven by price cuts, lost EV credits, and intense competition  .

Brand backlash: Musk’s politics are affecting European and US consumer sentiment  .

Heavy reliance on hype: Tesla’s valuation is closely tied to future potential (robotaxis, AI), rather than current financials  .

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📝 Summary

Tesla’s Q2 earnings are expected to underscore a notable slowdown in sales, margins, and profitability. That said, the narrative battle lies in whether Elon Musk can convince investors that robotaxi deployment, FSD progress, and next-gen models justify Tesla's lofty valuation. It’s a pivotal moment: the quarter may show weakness, but the call could pivot sentiment—up or down—based on forward-looking messaging.

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