Tesla $3 Trillion
Here's the most likely projection for Tesla over the next 10 years (2025 → 2035).
Based on Tesla’s current trajectory, industry trends, and realistic execution, the Base Case is the most probable scenario:
📊 Most Likely Tesla Projection (Base Case, 2025–2035)
- 2025 Revenue: ~$130B (today’s level).
- 2030 Revenue: ~$360B (tripling within 5 years as EV + energy scale).
- 2035 Revenue: ~$700B.
💰 Profit Margin Assumption: ~12%
- 2035 Profit: ~$84B.
📈 Valuation Assumption: P/E ~35 (tech + growth adjusted).
- 2035 Valuation: ~$2.9T (≈ $3 trillion).
🔑 Drivers Behind This Projection
- EVs: 10–12M annual deliveries by 2035.
- Energy Storage: Becomes a $150B business, rivaling utilities.
- FSD & Robotaxi: Moderately successful in select markets → adds $100B+ revenue.
- AI/Robotics: Early Optimus adoption, but not full-scale replacement of human labor yet.
📉 Key Risks
- Global competition (BYD, Toyota, Chinese EVs).
- Regulatory hurdles for robotaxis.
- Commodity supply chain issues.
✅ Conclusion:
The most realistic path puts Tesla around $3 trillion valuation in 2035.
That’s not quite $4T, but within striking distance if AI/robotaxi/energy outperform.
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