XAUUSD Forecast Update

 

XAUUSD Forecast Update — February 17, 2026

Current Price Snapshot

• Gold futures (Feb 17, 2026): ~$4,955/oz
• Recent close (Feb 16): ~$5,010/oz
• Short-term range observed mid-February: $4,965 – $5,105

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Short-Term Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

Bias: Neutral to slightly bullish with volatility

Key points

• Price recently failed above $5,100 resistance and moved lower.
• Sellers are testing support around $4,875.
• Market sentiment is mixed due to shifting Fed expectations and easing geopolitical tensions.
• Some forecasts expect gold to trade $4,915–$5,719 during February.

Short-term technical levels

• Resistance: $5,050 → $5,100 → $5,170
• Support: $4,875 → $4,650 → $4,500

Short-term target (analyst estimate):

• Upside target around $5,150–$5,265 if momentum returns.

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Medium-Term Outlook (Q1–Q2 2026)

Bias: Bullish trend intact

• Long-term trend remains positive while price holds above major moving averages.
• Structural bull case supported by:
  • Central-bank buying
  • Global debt concerns
  • Inflation hedging demand

Projected ranges

• Q1 2026: $4,800 – $5,500
• Q2 2026: $5,200 – $6,200

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Long-Term Outlook (2026)

Bias: Strong bullish structure

• Some forecasts place 2026 ranges between:
  • Conservative: $5,055 – $5,400 year-end targets.
  • Aggressive technical outlook: $6,000 – $7,600+ by late 2026.

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Key Fundamental Drivers

Bullish factors

• Expected Fed rate cuts.
• Inflation hedging demand.
• Central-bank diversification away from USD.

Bearish factors

• Stronger U.S. dollar.
• Reduced geopolitical risk.
• Profit-taking after major rally.

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Quick Trade Scenarios

Bullish scenario

• Hold above $4,875
• Break above $5,100
• Target: $5,150 → $5,300

Bearish scenario

• Break below $4,875
• Next supports: $4,650 → $4,500

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If you want, I can create a real-time XAUUSD infographic (like your previous ones) with updated price, indicators, and targets.